You really do not invest in a single asset. You invest in a financial ecosystem. Within that ecosystem, the value and the risk and the reward of all perceived assets are constantly changing, often in ways that are not always recognized until later. Keep in mind that the ecosystem is not contained by borders. International politics, climate change and covid are part of that ecosystem.
The cost of the investment in Versailles came two kings later. At that point, every investment by everyone changed abruptly and completely. The owners of assignats (fiat currency) were wiped out. The owners of the few Louis d’or gold coins did much better.
The investment costs and rewards of the Chinese Revolution have changed dramatically to this day.
The same with the Russian Revolution from 1918 to the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. What has been the change in Ukrainian assets over the last few months?
Following WWll, there were complete changes in asset values in Europe and Japan. Changes again after the adoption of the Euro.
In all cases, investments can be unpredictable and volatile in the financial ecosystem over time.
However, there has been one constant and predictable change in all financial ecosystems. That is the devaluation of all fiat currency that has ever been created by governments. This is critically important since all assets will generally be converted into national currency at some time for practical use or mandated by the government. The when and where is of the upmost importance.
Fiat currency dies by politics which can be easier to predict than many other assets. It can begin when politics chooses inflation or gets trapped in devaluation. Usually at some point, the pace quickens. Therefore, all asset values take place in a financial ecosystem which will ultimately have greater effect on an asset than the perceived characteristics and value of the individual asset itself. For instance, crypto currency is a political investment.
When sudden and dramatic change occurs in a secular financial ecosystem, individual personal worth and general asset values will be determined by the command of gold and other commodities.
Watch the financial ecosystem!