There are very important things happening in political geography. Although technology gets a lot of attention, particularly cyber security, real locations matter too.
For the past several years, China has led the world in foreign direct investment.
All regions of the world. Most countries of the world. Many sectors of the world, particularly real estate and natural resources.
China’s Belt and Road Initiative is now entrenched in over 60 countries and comprises more than a third of global GDP. They have used infrastructure investment as the first step to entry. It is usually tied to trade deals and loans to these countries to fund these building projects. They then have the power to entrench themselves more deeply. In Sri Lanka, they were able to acquire an 80% interest in a port in exchange for debt relief. Pakistan has asked for help from the International Monetary Fund because of the Chinese building projects and the debt incurred in the process. China has also directly bought infrastructure such as the largest port in the Panama Canal and they are building the Nicaraguan Grand Canal which will be even bigger than the Panama Canal. They also bought a large port in Australia.
Recently, the Chinese have taken over several reefs and atolls in the South China Sea and constructed military bases on them. They now claim they own what is currently designated as international water and airspace. Planes and ships traveling these routes are now warned to stay away by the Chinese military. It may be too late to do anything, as the other day. a U.S. warship was scared away by a Chinese warship.
The Chinese will end up controlling or having influence in significant real estate around the world and affect a large measure of international marine traffic.
After watching all this happen, the U.S. now complains about Chinese “aggressive” behavior. This activity will likely continue and it may be that the U.S. is finally taking this seriously as Vice President Pence strongly criticized China in a recent speech.
In the meantime, Russia confiscated the Crimean Peninsula and remains a threat to Eastern Europe. They have initiated a presence in the Middle East and show no signs of leaving. Importantly, they are exerting dominance in the Arctic and have established a military base there. They have made claims on resources from the top of the ice to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean. They are building a small but superior fleet of ice breaking ships which will enable them to open up new sea lanes in the Arctic circle that will provide faster travel to certain locales.
Turmoil in Europe, South America, Asia and the Middle East will create opportunities for further manipulation and aggression by many players and territorial control will be at the center of it.
Even though the internet world and cyberspace are very important, people are physical beings and ultimately governed by physical space. These territorial conflicts will eventually have more of an impact on your personal finances than the minor tweaks of trade policies.